How the estimate works
The plan limits are measured on your zipped content, and the APK stores files compressed too. Text compresses to roughly a quarter of its size; images, audio, video and WOFF2 fonts are already compressed and barely shrink; WebAssembly sits in between. The estimator applies those typical ratios, then adds about 5 MB for the app runtime — the WebView shell, launcher icons and resources. Real results vary by a few percent.
For an exact number
Drop your actual ZIP into the ZIP structure checker: it reads the true compressed size of every file. Then see what to cut first.
Questions people ask
How big is the smallest HTML APK?
About 5 MB — the runtime with a tiny page. The content you add is what changes the size.
Does Google Play limit APK size?
Play allows AABs whose generated download is up to 200 MB compressed (larger with asset delivery), far above anything the HTML plan limits allow.